Spring in Kiev begins under the sign of the election and the city’s preparation for Euro 2012. The stadium is working, the new bridge at the Dnieper is finished, the escape roads are being repaired and – most important – you can see the building of the new beautiful airport. And what about politics? Here a lot is going on!
The recent research published by the newspaper “Segodnya” give the Party of Regions (in power) 18%, Yulia Tymoshenko Block – 15%, Front for Change (Yatsenyuk) – 9% and UDAR (Klitschko) – 8%. In the Verkhovna Rada there would also be a place for the Communists with a score of 7%. From the figures published by the newspaper you can draw some conclusions. 20% of respondents do not intend to vote and the other 20% want to vote for someone else or they have not decided yet. Another issue is the fact that if there was a consolidation of the opposition, it can already expect an outcome significantly better that the party in power. It is worth to note that the quoted percentages relate to the proportional distribution of seats in the middle of Verkhovna Rada. The rest will be elected with the majority system. And these are governed by slightly different rules.
Yesterday in Kiev my interlocutors clearly suggested that the talks about creating a common opposition formation are at a very advanced stage. In the Ukrainian conditions, where you cannot create a coalition, it means that there are two options: either a creation of a new party, or a consolidation under one of the existing structure. I think that within a few days “something” will happen.
The opposition is preparing intensively for the election despite the detention of its leaders in jail. There will not be any breakthrough in here. It turns out that further charges against Tymoshenko are being prepared and apparently in the prosecutor list there are other politicians. There were some hopes concerning the chance to treat the former Prime Minister in Germany but in the Ukrainian law there is no concept of “prisoner hospitalised abroad” and the authorities in Berlin do not really know how to deal with a sanctioned person.
Together with the Board of the YES Foundation we tried to convince our interlocutors that the quality of the parliamentary elections to be held in October is perhaps the last chance to revive the association process and free trade agreement. They all agreed with us. But how will it influence the observers’ opinion? We will see that in half a year.